Hard Winter Wheat Quality Tour 2005
Results     Summary
     
RESULTS All Averages are Weighted  
Day One - May 3   Range Range      
Route Car Avg Stops Low High Route Avg    
Purple 1 49.0 16 27.0 87.0   Colorado Total
Purple 2 50.6 16 38.0 63.0   32 stops  
Purple 3           36 Average
Purple 4         49.8 xx Dry  
Green 1 54.0 12 35.0 66.0   xx Irrigated  
Green 2 51.0 15 31.5 65.2   LY 28.0  
Green 3              
Green 4         52.3    
Pink 1 46.1 13 24.2 76.4      
Pink 2 48.0 14 25.0 80.0      
Pink 3 50.5 15 34.0 64.0      
Pink 4         48.3 Nebraska Total
Yellow 1 48.0 14 27.0 82.0   47 Average
Yellow 2 41.8 17 33.8 56.1   84 stops  
Yellow 3         44.6 Range 60-80 Dry
Blue 1 54.8 18 30.0 82.0   xx irrigated high end
Blue 2 45.1 15 31.4 66.7   1.8 MM Planted
Blue 3           46 bus Prod LY
Blue 4         50.4    
Black 1 48.0 13 26.0 87.0   2004 38.0 202 stops  
Black 2 49.3 14 39.0 66.1   2003 38.6 179 stops
Black 3         48.7 2002 37.4 234 stops
            2001 32.6 212 stops
  Total Stops 192   Day 1 Avg 48.9 2000 40.8 218 stops
               
Hard Winter Wheat Quality Tour 2005   All Averages are Weighted  
Day Two - May 4   Range Range Route      
Route Car Avg Stops Low High Avg    
Purple 1 47.6 17 30.2 81.3      
Purple 2 41.9 20 16.0 53.0   Oklahoma  
Purple 3              
Purple 4         44.5 5.9 MM Planted
Green 1 31.2 16 7.5 43.0   Prod 146.61MM Bu est
Green 2 46.9 12 36.0 65.0   LY 164.5 MM bu Prod
Green 3              
Green 4         37.9    
Pink 1 45.0 12 23.0 61.0      
Pink 2 48.8 12 38.8 56.0  

 Two Day

Pink 3 44.8 15 29.8 62.8     Totals
Pink 4 47.0 15 29.1 69.0 46.3    
Yellow 1 38.6 12 20.2 71.8   Avg 46.5
Yellow 2 45.0 13 29.9 64.0   Stops 399
Yellow 3         41.9 2004 2-day 36.7/407
Blue 1 49.6 14 29.0 76.0   2003 2-day 38.1/371
Blue 2 40.0 12 31.0 56.0   2002 2-day 34.5/442
Blue 3           2001 2-day 32.1/438
Blue 4         45.2 2000 2-day 41.1/434
Black 1 42.8 25 26.0 89.0      
Black 2 53.7 12 40.0 82.0   2004 D2 35.4/205 stops
Black 3         46.3 2003 D2 37.7/192 stops
            2002 D2 31.3/208 stops
  Total Stops 207   Day 2 Avg 44.2 2001 D2 31.7/226 stops
            2000 D2 41.4/216 stops
               
               
               
Hard Winter Wheat Quality Tour 2005   All Averages are Weighted  
Day Three - May 5   Range Range      
Route Car Avg Stops Low High Route Avg    
Purple 1 33.6 3 25 40      
Purple 2 45.0 6 25 53.5      
Purple 3              
Purple 4         41.2    
Green 1 49.9 1 49.9 49.9      
Green 2              
Green 3              
Green 4         49.9    
Pink 1 51.3 3 41.7 56.5      
Pink 2 40.2 5 30.9 46.1      
Pink 3              
Pink 4         44.4    
Yellow 1 48.4 4 35.7 57.8      
Yellow 2 36.0 4 22 44      
Yellow 3         42.2    
Blue 1 43.0 3 25 57      
Blue 2 43.0 4 18 69      
Blue 3              
Blue 4         43.0    
Black 1 42.0 3 29 53      
Black 2           2004 D3 44.0/46 stops
Black 3         42.0 2003 D3 43.8/45 stops
            2002 D3 47.3/41 stops
  Total Stops 36   Day 3 Avg 42.8 2001 D3 39.0/42 stops
            2000 D3 45.1/45 stops
Hard Winter Wheat Quality Tour 2005        
Three Day Total May 3-5, 2005 Yield Potential    
          All Averages are Weighted  
  Stops Stop/Car Avg Low High    
Day 1 192 14.8 48.9 24.2 87    
Day 2 207 14.8 44.2 7.5 89    
Day 3 36 3.6 42.8 18 69    
Total 435 33.2 46.2        
               
Historical              
Year Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Avg Stops    
2004 38.0 35.4 44.0 37.4 453    
2003 38.6 37.7 43.8 38.8 416    
2002 37.4 31.3 47.3 35.6 483    
2001 32.6 31.7 39.0 32.7 480    
2000 40.8 41.4 45.1 41.4 479    
1999 38.0 40.0 37.2 38.9 527    
               
Tour Participants - Breakdown          
               
Class   Number Percent        
Government 10 19        
University   2 4        
Media   5 10        
Grain   11 21        
Milling   8 15        
Baker   3 6        
Producers   9 17        
Other   4 8        
               
    52          

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SUMMARY

2005 Wheat Quality Council Hard Winter Wheat Tour Completed
Summary by Ben Handcock

Fourteen cars with 54 participants surveyed the potential of the Kansas Wheat Crop the week of May 2-5, 2005.  The total number of field stops was 435

The Wheat Quality Council Hard Winter Wheat Tour crop scouts received a brief training and tour overview session on May 2 in Manhattan, KS.  On May 3, the fourteen cars traveled on six different routes and arrived that evening in Colby, KS.  The scouts reported seeing stripe rust and some leaf spotting diseases along with powdery mildew.  Nothing seemed severe enough to have a big impact on the crop.  Yields ranged from a high of 87 bushels to a low of 24 bushels with a day one average of 48.9 bushels per acre.  Dry soil conditions prevailed in the Central and Northwest areas.

Day two saw cars going from Colby to Wichita, KS.  Again, some disease was observed, but the main item of concern was the dry soil conditions.  The yield range was from 89 bushels down to 7.5 bushels with a day two average of 44.2 bushels per acre.

Day three concluded the tour with a final survey of fields from Wichita to Kansas City.  These fields averaged 42.8 bushels per acre with a range from 69 down to 18 bushels.  Due to weighted averages, this smaller production area does not have a huge influence on statewide statistics.  This area also appeared drier than normal.

The results of each day, plus the three-day composite can be seen in the accompanying table.  Past yearís results are noted for comparison.

The calculated average for the entire trip was 46.2 bushels per acre versus 37.4 bushels on the same routes last year.  Forty-three participants estimated the total Kansas production at an average 419.76 million bushels.  This estimate attempts to factor in acres of abandoned wheat or total acres of harvested wheat.  This compares with our estimate of 355 million bushels for the same time last year.  The Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service will release its first official estimate of production on May 12.

Scouts from Nebraska, Colorado and Oklahoma also gave the group results of their own state observations.  Nebraska pegged its crop at 47 bushels versus 39 last year.  Colorado estimated yields of 36 versus 28 last year.  Oklahoma estimated total production at 146.6 million bushels versus 165 million a year ago.  All of these observations are based on the same time frame as a year ago.

My personal view is that this crop has a lot more downside potential than upside.  It is just too dry for this crop to reach its full yield potential.  Diseases may overtake the wheat in some isolated areas, but drought is the big concern.  It froze a week or ten days ago in a lot of areas, and I donít believe we were capable of detecting how much damage, if any, was done.  The only evidence of a freeze in most areas was the brown tips on the leaves.  The full extent of any damage will not be evident for a few more days.

Please donít get the impression that our numbers are official.  They are not.  The KS Ag Statistics numbers are the only official numbers.  In the past ten years or so, we have been remarkably close to their May number.  Many times, we are both quite a ways off from their final number that they can adjust until fall

There were quite a number of first-timers on this yearís tour.  They reported that they had a great time and also learned a great deal in a short time.

Thank you to all our members, who send employees, provide cars and help in other ways to make this tour a success.  I look forward to your support again next year on the 49th annual Wheat Quality Council Hard Winter Tour.

Please share this email with others in your organization that may not be on our email list; and donít forget about the Wheat Quality Council Hard Spring and Durum tour July 25-28.  Registration forms are available on our web site at www.wheatqualitycouncil.org.

Ben Handcock
Executive Vice President
bhwqc@aol.com
www.wheatqualitycouncil.org


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