Hard Winter Wheat Quality Tour 2004
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  All Averages are Weighted
Day One - April 27          
Route Car Average Stops Range
Low		 Range
High		 Route Avg    
Purple 1 42.4 16 11.4 72.3   Colorado Total
Purple 2 34.0 14 16.8 51.5   29 stops  
Purple 3           28.0 Average
Purple 4         38.5 26.2 Dry  
Green 1 42.0 12 25.9 61.7   42.9 Irrigated
Green 2 40.6 15 28.5 64.7   LY 31.2  
Green 3 37.4 16 20.0 69.0      
Green 4         39.8    
Pink 1 41.6 14 25.3 75.7      
Pink 2 37.7 13 15.6 53.5      
Pink 3 34.0 14 22.0 48.0      
Pink 4         37.8 Nebraska Total
Yellow 1 36.0 11 18.0 65.1   39.0 Average
Yellow 2 41.1 15 21.9 57.0   183 stops  
Yellow 3         38.9 Range 13-73 Dry
Blue 1 38.4 11 22.1 73.4   93 irrigated high end
Blue 2 31.7 17 10.0 73.7   1.9 MM Planted
Blue 3           46 bus Prod LY
Blue 4         34.3    
Black 1 39.8 17 12.5 67.5      
Black 2 35.7 17 5.0 58.2   2003 38.6 179 stops
Black 3         37.8 2002 37.4 234 stops
            2001 32.6 212 stops
  Total Stops 202   Day 1 Avg 38.0 2000 40.8 218 stops
             
  All Averages are Weighted
Day Two - April 28          
Route Car Average Stops Range
Low		 Range
High		 Route Avg    
Purple 1 27.5 23 2.4 75.0      
Purple 2 26.7 15 17.6 53.4   Oklahoma  
Purple 3              
Purple 4         27.2 6.4 MM Planted
Green 1           Prod 165MM Bu est
Green 2 37.4 12 7.0 96.0   LY 179MM bu Prod
Green 3           Official Tour May 5
Green 4         37.4    
Pink 1 37.1 14 11.4 56.0      
Pink 2 38.7 14 19.6 54.8      
Pink 3 29.4 13 10.8 47.6      
Pink 4 31.6 15 5.0 63.7 34.2   Two Day
Yellow 1 37.9 9 20.0 59.6     Totals
Yellow 2 37.3 13 14.1 65.5      
Yellow 3         37.6 Avg 36.7
Blue 1 38.1 14 15.2 79.5   Stops 407
Blue 2 39.5 18 20.6 58.3   2003 2-day 38.1/371
Blue 3 46.2 13 35.0 56.0   2002 2-day 34.5/442
Blue 4         41.0 2001 2-day 32.1/438
Black 1 36.8 14 24.9 33.6   2000 2-day 41.1/434
Black 2 37.0 18 26.6 50.9      
Black 3         36.9 2003 D2 37.7 192 stops
            2002 D2 31.3 208 stops
  Total Stops 205   Day 2 Avg 35.4 2001 D2 31.7 226 stops
          2000 D2 41.4 216 stops
  All Averages are Weighted
Day Three - April 29          
Route Car Average Stops Range
Low		 Range
High		 Route Avg    
Purple 1 51.9 7 34.5 48.1      
Purple 2 41.9 3 38.7 47.6      
Purple 3              
Purple 4         48.9    
Green 1              
Green 2 40.9 4 34.5 45      
Green 3              
Green 4         40.9    
Pink 1 53.5 6 43 62      
Pink 2              
Pink 3              
Pink 4         53.5    
Yellow 1              
Yellow 2 38.0 7 25.3 45.3      
Yellow 3 39.8 6 28.3 49.5 38.8    
Blue 1              
Blue 2              
Blue 3 37.7 3 35.7 40.9      
Blue 4         37.7    
Black 1 40.6 5 33.1 46.2      
Black 2 46.2 5 38.8 43.8      
Black 3         43.4 2003 D3 43.8 45 stops
            2002 D3 47.3/41 stops
  Total Stops 46   Day 3 Avg 44.0 2001 D3 39.0/ 42 stops
          2000 D3 45.1/ 45 stops
       
       
        All Averages are Weighted
Three Day Total - April 27-29, 2004 Yield Potential    
  Stops Stop/Car Average Low High    
Day 1 202 14.4 38.0 5 75.7    
Day 2 205 14.6 35.4 2.4 96    
Day 3 46 5.1 44.0 25.3 62    
Total 453 34.2 37.4        
               
Historical            
Year Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Average Stops    
2003 38.6 37.7 43.8 38.8 416    
2002 37.4 31.3 47.3 35.6 483    
2001 32.6 31.7 39 32.7 480    
2000 40.8 41.4 45.1 41.4 479    
1999 38 40 37.2 38.9 527    
             
Tour Participants - Breakdown
        
Class   Number Percent        
Government 12 22        
University 2 4        
Media   4 7        
Grain   8 15        
Milling   11 20        
Baker   2 4        
Producers 4 7        
Other   11 20        
               
    54          

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2004 Hard Winter Wheat Tour Completed

 Summary by Ben Handcock

Fourteen cars with 54 participants surveyed the potential of the Kansas Wheat Crop the week of April 26-29, 2004.  The total number of field stops was 453.

Crop scouts received a brief training and tour overview session April 26 in Manhattan, KS.  On April 27, the fourteen cars traveled on six different routes and arrived that evening in Colby, KS.  The scouts reported very little disease pressure, but a variable crop yieldwise.  Yields ranged from a low of five bushels to a high of 75 bushels with a day one average of 38 bushels per acre.  The drought was evident in North Central and Northwest areas.

Day two saw cars going from Colby to Wichita, KS.  Again, disease was not a problem, but drought in western areas caused yields to be all over the board.  The yield range was from 2.4 to 96 bushels with a day two average of 35.4 bushels per acre.  Some freeze damage was noted in the south, but did not appear to have a great influence on the crop.

Day three concluded the tour with a final survey of fields from Wichita to Kansas City.  These fields averaged 44 bushels per acre with a low of 25 and a high of 62.  Due to weighted averages, this smaller production area does not have a huge influence on statewide statistics. Disease pressure was minimal.

The results of each day, plus the three-day composite can be seen in the accompanying tables.  Last year’s results are noted for comparison.

Our calculated average for the entire trip was 37.4 bushels per acre versus 38.8 bushels on the same routes last year.  Forty-seven tour participants estimated the total production for Kansas at an average of 355 million bushels.  This compares with our estimate of 364 million bushels. The Kansas Ag Statistics Service will reveal their first estimate of the Kansas crop on May 12.

Scouts from Nebraska, Colorado and Oklahoma also gave the group results of their own state observations.  Nebraska pegged its crop at 39 bushels versus 42 last year.  Colorado estimated yields of 28 versus 31 last year.  Oklahoma estimated their production at 165 million bushels versus 170 million in 2003.

My personal observations are that even though our numbers are similar to last year, this Kansas wheat crop does not have the potential we saw on last year’s wheat tour.  Obviously, rain like last May could improve this crop, but I don’t see a 400 million-bushel crop this year.  A lot of wheat in western Kansas did not have good emergence last fall and came up this spring.  Most of that wheat will be destroyed for collection of crop insurance and replanted to grain sorghum or some other crop.  In my opinion, we will not see a weather pattern like we saw last year following the tour.  I believe this crop has more downside potential than upside.  I hope I am wrong.

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