Hard Winter Wheat Quality Tour 2012   All Averages are Weighted
Day One - May 1   Range Range    
Route Car Average Stops Low High Route Avg  
Purple 1 55 12 40 65   Nebraska
Purple 2 46 17 26 75   xxx MM Planted
Purple 3 56 21 24 120   EST xxx b/a
Purple 4         52.1 Prod Est xxxx MM bu
Green 1 52 16 31 76   LY xxxx MM bu Prod
Green 2 64 16 21 108    
Green 3 48 15 38 62   Colorado
Green 4 47 13 31 57 53.1 2.4 MM Planted (2.2 Est Harvest)
Pink 1 61 17 25 87   Est 40 b/a
Pink 2 53 15 30 105   Prod Est XXX MM bu
Pink 3 49 13 33 70   LY 78 MM bu Prod
Pink 4         54.7  
Yellow 1 60 14 37 81    
Yellow 2 46 14 23 73    
Yellow 3 48 13 24 64 51.5  
Blue 1 64 11 35 87    
Blue 2 56 14 23 92   2011 40.0 267 stops
Blue 3 50 12 22 77   2010 40.7 213 stops
Blue 4 49 12 29 63 54.6 2009 41.3 215 stops
Black 1 46 13 23 70   2008 45.4 190 stops
Black 2 60 13 38 91   2007 40.0 209 stops
Black 3 60 9 32 93 54.9 2006 40.6 210 stops
            2005 48.9 192 stops
  Total Stops 280   Day 1 Avg 53.4 2004 38.0 202 stops
             
Hard Winter Wheat Quality Tour 2012   All Averages are Weighted
Day Two - May 2   Range Range    
Route Car Average Stops Low High Route Avg  
Purple 1 44 12 17 99   Oklahoma
Purple 2 51 19 21 80   5.5 MM Planted (4.1 Est Harvest)
Purple 3 44 15 20 77   Est 39.6 b/a
Purple 4         46.9 Prod Est 164.9 MM bu
Green 1 40 15 20 69   LY 74.8 MM bu Prod
Green 2 43 14 18 66    
Green 3 39 19 22 78   KS Two Day Totals KS Two Day
Green 4 38 13 17 61 39.9 Avg 48.5
Pink 1 45 16 14 81   Stops 566
Pink 2 46 14 23 80   2011 2 day 36.7/531
Pink 3 32 13 12 54   2010 2 day 40.3/428
Pink 4         41.5 2009 2 day 40.6/427
Yellow 1 42 12 15 62   2008 2 day 43.3/357
Yellow 2 40 12 26 79   2007 2 day 41.6/417
Yellow 3 37 4 35 38 40.4 2006 2 day 37.2/404
Blue 1 41 12 8 61   2005 2 day 46.5/399
Blue 2 43 13 21 71   2004 2-day 36.7/407
Blue 3 41 13 19 65   2011 D2 33.4/264 stops
Blue 4 50 14 26 85 43.8 2010 D2 39.9/215 stops
Black 1 54 22 25 81   2009 D2 39.8/212 stops
Black 2 52 16 19 94   2008 D2 40.9/167 stops
Black 3 39 18 21 88 48.3 2007 D2 43.2/208 stops
            2006 D2 33.5/194 stops
  Total Stops 286   Day 2 Avg 43.7 2005 D2 44.2/207 stops
            2004 D2 35.4/205 stops
             
             
             
Hard Winter Wheat Quality Tour 2011   All Averages are Weighted
Day Three - May 3   Range Range    
Route Car Average Stops Low High Route Avg  
Purple 1 53 3 43 62    
Purple 2 63 2 50 85    
Purple 3 53 3 49 55    
Purple 4         55.3  
Green 1 54 3 33 74    
Green 2 51 2 51 59    
Green 3            
Green 4         52.6  
Pink 1 50 6 43 73    
Pink 2 69 3 55 79    
Pink 3 53 2 50 56    
Pink 4         56.0  
Yellow 1 54 2 47 61    
Yellow 2 43 1 43 43    
Yellow 3 82 3 67 100 66.0  
Blue 1 54 2 52 56    
Blue 2 64 3 56 80    
Blue 3 63 2 50 85   2011 D3 49.5/30 stops
Blue 4 46 3 37 57 56.2 2010 D3 46.4/27 stops
Black 1 67 2 65 68   2009 D3 43.7/32 stops
Black 2           2008 D3 43.3/31 stops
Black 3         66.5 2007 D3 32.4/30 stops
            2006 D3 38.8/31 stops
  Total Stops 42   Day 3 Avg 57.5 2005 D3 42.8/36 stops
            2004 D3 44.0/46 stops
Hard Winter Wheat Quality Tour 2012      
Three Day Total May 1-3, 2012 Yield Potential  
          All Averages are Weighted
  Stops Stop/Car Average Low High  
Day 1 280 14.0 53.4 21 120.3  
Day 2 286 14.3 43.7 8 9.2  
Day 3 42 2.6 57.5 33 100.3  
Total 608 30.9 49.1      
             
Historical            
Year Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Average Stops  
2011 40.0 33.4 49.5 37.4 561  
2010 40.7 39.9 46.4 40.7 455  
2009 41.3 39.8 43.7 40.8 459  
2008 45.4 40.9 43.3 43.3 388  
2007 40.0 43.2 32.4 41.0 447  
2006 40.6 33.5 38.8 37.3 435  
2005 48.9 44.2 42.8 46.2 435  
2004 38.0 35.4 44.0 37.4 453  
2003 38.6 37.7 43.8 38.8 416  
2002 37.4 31.3 47.3 35.6 483  
2001 32.6 31.7 39.0 32.7 480  
2000 40.8 41.4 45.1 41.4 479  
1999 38.0 40.0 37.2 38.9 527  
             
Tour Participants - Breakdown        
             
Class   Number Percent      
Government 13 13      
University   5 5      
Media   9 9      
Grain   21 21      
Milling   22 22      
Baker   8 8      
Producers   9 9      
Other   13 13      
Total   100        

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Hard Winter Wheat Tour Summary by Ben Handcock

2012 Wheat Quality Council Hard Winter Tour Completed

Twenty-one cars with 97 crop scouts surveyed and evaluated the potential of the Kansas wheat crop the week of April 30-May 3, 2012. The total number of field stops was 608 compared to 561 one year ago. This year the weather was great for all three days, and we had the largest number of participants in history.

The participants attended a brief training and tour overview session in Manhattan on the evening of April 30 before enjoying a great steak fry. The dinner was held at the Rambler’s Steak House in Manhattan.

Day one saw the 21 cars traveling on six different routes from Manhattan to Colby. (See tour map). The wheat seemed consistently good on most routes, and the Nebraska route found good wheat. Considerable disease pressure was found by the scouts. Yields for the day ranged from 21-120 bushels per acre with the day one average on all routes at 53.4 bushels. This compares with 40 bushels one year ago. We stopped in 280 fields on day one. A group scouted eastern Colorado and reported a yield average of 40 bushels and estimated a total production of 88 million bushels for 2012.

Day Two the cars traveled from Colby to Wichita. Several cars went into the far western Kansas counties and three cars actually covered the northern tier of Oklahoma counties. The western Kansas area was reported as being still quite dry, and in serious need of a good rain. The cars in Oklahoma found fair yields in very dry fields in the west but improvement as they moved east. The day two average was 43.7 bushels per acre compared to 33.4 in 2011. We had a range from 8-99 bushels and made 286 stops. Oklahoma reported an estimated 39.6 bushels per acre and a total production of 164.9 million bushels. This compares with 67.7 million estimated at this time last year.

Day Three concluded the trip with the cars traveling from Wichita to Kansas City. We lost a car and a few people in Wichita and made 42 stops on the shortened day. This smaller production area does not have a significant impact on the state-wide average, but is usually a high yielding area. Yields ranged from 33-100 bushels with the day three average at 57.5 compared to 49.5 last year. Moisture seemed to be better across this area of the state.

The Calculated Average for the entire tour was 49.1 bushels per acre compared to 37.4 bushels on the same routes in 2011. The scouts use a formula provided by KS Ag Statistics to arrive at their calculated average. The formula is based on a 10-year rolling average and changes slightly from year to year.

The Estimated Production for the Kansas crop by 63 participants who joined the pool this year is 403.8 million bushels. These people base their estimates on yield estimates and acres expected to be harvested. There are always a number of abandoned acres and they attempt to factor that into the equation. KS Ag Statistics released their official estimate of the crop today. They had production estimates of 387 million bushels and 43 bushels per acre.

My personal observations, for what they’re worth, are as follows:

Western parts of the state are still seriously short of moisture. I arrived in Kansas expecting to see a much better crop than last year, and that’s what I saw. As the tour progressed, I became more convinced that the crop would be higher than average. I believe our 49.1 bushel average will be a bit too high. The 10-year average for Kansas is around 350 million bushels. Our estimators, at 403.8 are above that number, and I believe even that number is too high. I suspect that a good number of the small tillers will be lost before harvest. I think there is a lot more downside potential to this crop than upside.

The reason I say this is because of the disease pressure I saw. Some wheat that had just headed had pretty severe stripe rust on the flag leaf, along with a lot of other leaf diseases. I’m not sure there will be enough flag leaf left to ensure proper grain fill. All in all though, this is a pretty nice crop.

Please keep in mind that this whole tour is a snapshot in time regarding the potential of this crop. Fifty-five of our 97 participants were first-timers. They reported learning a lot about wheat while having a good time doing it. The value of this exercise is the people you meet and the friends you make and keep in contact with over the years to come. Although I think we did a fine job of estimating the crop potential that really takes a back seat to the real value of the tour. This was truly a very diverse group of very nice people.

Thanks to all who sent employees, provided cars and helped in many ways to make this tour a success. I look forward to your support on our 56th annual Wheat Quality Council Hard Winter Wheat Tour.

Please share this information with others in your organization that may not be on our email list!!!

Remember our Hard Spring and Durum tour coming up on July 23-26. This tour covers North Dakota plus parts of Minnesota and South Dakota. A few brave souls might venture near the Montana border to look for a few more Durum fields to report on. The format is very similar to the winter tour, and registration forms are available on our web site at www.wheatqualitycouncil.org.